1) I highly doubt this one. There are so many console game franchises which are incredibly popular. I.e Halo, Gears of War. The PC Gamer install base, and more specifically, the Total War install base, although substantial will not be close to something like the Gears of War install base. (Which by the way sold 2 million copies in it's first weekend).
So in terms of overall popularity, no.
2) In terms of popularity, again probably not. Even in PC gaming Strategy games tend to be overlooked in favour of FPS, MMO or RPG.
3) At the moment I'm not really aware of anything else coming out in 2009 which I am looking forward to except for Empire. So, for me yes.
However, Medieval II Total War is one of the best games I have ever played. I was a little late in buying it, (sometime a little over a year ago.) but it remains my top PC game. Empire will probably follow suit for me, and many other TW fans.
So to me it will be the game of the year, because I am a fan of the series. Not to say it won't have critical success, retail sucess and such but my point is that not quite on the scale of what is typically defined as 'Game of the Year'. Strategy game of the year though? Very likely.