Prologue
*****
Full-text article published in the China Times English web-based news service, Opinion

Panda Crossing the Rubicon
by Dr. Thomas Xiong Ming, Emeritus
March 14, 2058

Every troglodyte and troglodyte's mum knows about the gender disparity in China. Sociologists pointed out the problem in the 1990's, half a century ago. Though the intent of the cause of this inequity - the infamous One Child Policy - certainly wasn't to create any sort of imbalance, the melange of greater Han Chinese and minority culture and value sets, economic necessities, ideology and other factors all contributed to, at first, various forms of infanticide or giving up of children, as well as abortions both forced and voluntary, and a large number of childless couples. To the greater Western school of thought, this was and largely remains unthinkable. The tragedy is that many people don't know that it was an even more terrible choice in the eyes of the Chinese parent forced to make such decisions, but they had little to no choice. However, that's a story for another day.

Digressions aside, let us focus on the topic of women in China. The status quo is generally grim, the outlook uncertain. The Chinese government has long recognized the disparity and the possible consequences, and has taken steps, but there is only so much a plutocracy can achieve, especially with a population base so large and willfully disobedient. Even in the now-distant mid-twentieth century, the Chinese Communist Party [CCP] promulgated a simple message to the peasant and urban masses: "One Couple, One Child, Male and Female are Equal," recognizing the potential for future imbalance; obviously, this failed; the incentive to retain male children was higher to the then socioeconomic standards than those of now.

As the years went by and the divide between men and women climbed, from a national average of roughly 123.4 males to every 100 females in 2007 (when this author first studied the issue as an undergraduate student) to 127.1 to 100 in 2022, a sudden jump to 132.8 to 100 by 2035, as an epidemic's virulence peaks before vanishing (in this case a last flurry of rejections of female babies), then a plateau thereafter. Currently, the ratio is roughly 132.2 men to every 100 women, a negligible improvement. The coming generations will be much more balanced, but CCP still must manage its excess male population with a cautious hand. The gender disparities in adolescent to marriageable age groups will only begin fading in roughly ten years, when the first of these budding citizens enter their teens, and the existing excess male populace must be muzzled, spent, or diverted for the remainder of their lives.

The slight improvements seen in the current generation are due to a combination of reduced lifespan among Chinese men, female children no longer being discarded or exported and the immigration of foreign women taking advantage of the opportunities inherent in an increasingly affluent nation which lavishes attention upon women. Increasingly, China is seen as the ‘Italy of Asia,’ with Japanese, Korean, and other nations sending their wealthy and not-so-wealthy women to experience a few weeks of wonders both natural and historical, as well as a heady near-celebrity status with local men. In other words, it is a destination for female sex-tourism.

Chinese men face decreased life expectancies both as a result of the seemingly-universal perpetual bachelor's lifestyle among them, and the attendant artist's palette of risky choices. Among these are not only the risks involved with wooing female sex tourists with possible sexually transmitted conditions, but also the increased, but tacit, tolerance of homosexuality, as well as widespread patronization of prostitutes. In addition, attention-seeking stunts, various forms of street racing, and fights over women take their toll. Culturally, China faces an alarming mélange of traditional and liberal values alarmingly like the fallen superpower at the calm before the worldwide crises in the early century.

Chinese wives have long been seen as a mixture of the exotic and erotic abroad, as well. With the increased difficulty of obtaining one, many international figures are now flaunting the fact that they are able to attract and retain Chinese trophy wives, mistresses, or girlfriends, despite the increased Chinese nationalistic taboo against intercultural marriage.

These all contribute to a constantly increasing sense of female empowerment, as women gain more and more influence over mens' decisions and resource-allocation, as well as enjoying more options in general. Whereas in this author’s formative years, young and attractive, and ambitious, Chinese women generally aimed to trade their youth, beauty, and devotion to wealthy businessmen and bureaucrats for a higher standard-of-living and an assured future, today’s beauties can expect to face a dizzying plethora of rich foreigners and natives pursuing her favors. A married man is a lucky man, but dating men increasingly see their situations as insecure. Those dating have relatively little cause for concern if he has exacted an agreement to marriage, so long as he keeps his future wife happy, but those who aren’t assured of such a future realize, quite pragmatically, that their chances may not be guaranteed of a next time.

Women have always held a great deal of power in the Chinese society, just always in a surreptitious manner until now. With the increased liberalization of society, and the resultantly greater deference and pandering visited upon women by their male counterparts in light of the greater demand for them, we are now seeing women come to the light in increasingly powerful positions within home and state. Currently, there are roughly two women in Party positions for every three men; the ratio of governorship and mayorial seats held by women are approximately equal. Quite a disparity, when compared to the general population statistics.

What more will this entail for the future? Women have proved time and time again throughout history that they can be harder than men. They are generally expected to be softer, however, and female Party leaders tend to pay slightly more attention to humanist details than their male analogues.

Is it possible that a female Prime Minister may eventually rise through the Party cadres? There are several promising rising candidates, of whom nearly half seem to favor a militaristic expansionism akin to the height of Han conquest, often with the platitudinous equivalent of "taking our neighbors under our wing," "fighting political and/or religious extremism," or some other such seemingly benevolent suggestion serving as a tenuous cover.

Frighteningly, China's behavior is beginning to match that of the former superpower, the United States of America. If one subscribes to Modelski's phases of greatness doctrine, one could state that China is acting as a Gramscian leader internally, and making the shift from such a soft foreign policy to a more overt material (read: military) exertion of will over its neighbors, allies, proxies, and trade partners. Rather akin to Europe's spheres of power system in Qin-era Imperial China, the PRC now effectively controls a number of American ports, as well as scattered other ports and sectors in European, African, and Latin American nations. Though the CCP has been aloof from the suggestion that this constitutes economic colonialism, many regard it as such, despite the feather-handed control exerted by cautious Chinese investor boards and corporate director-generals.

Can one make a supposition, even a syllogism, that a great wave of upheaval is approaching, to be catalyzed by China and its allies? After all, the Gramscian to material shift represents the second phase of Modelski's model of superpowers. The late second phase represents the empowerment of the military-industrial complex and increased belligerence, often in a twisted form of the Gramscian. In a word, war.

Archived in Volume 84, Online

Dr. Xiong Ming is an esteemed academic as well as an analyst of world affairs. He attended the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and received his undergraduate degree in International Studies, with minors in Sociology and Political Science, going on to receive his Master's and Doctorate degrees at Carnegie-Mellon's prestigious International Relations program. He has worked for the UN Panel on Addressing Gender Disparity in Greater China, as well as for the Pentagon’s East Asia Desk, the PRC Planning Committee for Regional Stability, as well as as a professor of East Asian Strategic Studies at Oxford. He resides in Chicago, Illinois, where he writes for various publications.

*****
Well, how was that? This is just the very beginning, and I'm not using Dr. Thom as a character, merely as a fictional author of fictional analyses to drive the plotline.

Edited on Feb. 24th. I added some to the essay and corrected some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as revising wording in places. More elaboration, as well.

[This message has been edited by aznninjahitman (edited 02-24-2008 @ 04:40 PM).]

Wow aznj I don't know what it was. Might have been the structure of the prologue, or the details, but either way I really liked it. As I was reading it I was imagining how it would be in my mind. A country where women are coveted, appreciated, and dare I say worshipped by an oversized male populance. That and the opportunity to attain more political, military and economic power than any woman has been able to in the past.

Also for some interesting reason when I was reading it I was reminded of movies like I am Legend, I Robot and the terminator series. Maybe it's because I'm expecting something big to happen in future installments.

Keep it going aznj, because I have to say this story has already peaked my interest and attention.

Interesting!

I liked the way you use the fictional author to lay the background. Making him a professor was a nice touch- then you can use a suitable language when expressing his writings/analysis.

I would definitely read more of this.

lol...

With the return to writing, I also saw the return of my old anxieties when I was writing Empires, except even more strongly.

Let's face it. I'm a perfectionist. And I want to get this story/analysis just right.

This prologue is good, if I say so myself, but it could be better. I already changed a few minor things, such as the professor's name (I used a friend's name, but he didn't like that, which I understand - pity, because his name was a really good one).

This week is a stressful one, too (really busy). I probably won't get around to editing this and finishing my preplanning until the weekend's end. Please bear with me, and be sure to put your own ideas, both on society now in China and around the world, and its future, up. I might actually use some of the ideas in your posts, if they're good/plausible (of course, I'll give credit where it's due) ^_^

[added]

Well, well... I'm still grinding away at the original prologue post. Suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

I'm trying to figure out the line between relatively simple and powerful prose, and an overtly long and loquacious/sententious article.

[This message has been edited by aznninjahitman (edited 01-31-2008 @ 09:04 PM).]

Okay, I'm really working on that Prologue some more. I could use someone to help me review the revised version vs. the original. If you're willing, let me know, and give me your email please.

Thanks.

Awesome start man!

Congrats to Azn. Put 'em here, folks

*bumps*

I'll be putting up the first chapter sometime tomorrow, I think.

Despite how long it has been, I have not forgotten the courtesies of the War Stories forum. Thank you for reading mine. I read yours the first day you posted it, actually.

I found it interesting. Confusing as all hell and I have no idea where it is going, but interesting.

I await the first chapter.

I'm almost done with the first chapter. In it, I aim to introduce the main characters in this work and the star-crossed nature of their affair.

If you don't like minor flirting and romance, this is your warning ^_^

I thought the introductory essay was pretty clear on what the problem was. I've added some to it, in any case. Where this work is going is a different matter - I have ideas, but few are completely assured as of yet.

I'll try to explain cultural factors and such as I go along, but a lot of things will need to be left unsaid, so be sure to stay open-minded if you read this.

Also... here's a link to an excerpt of the song I'll reference at the beginning of the first story post.

[This message has been edited by aznninjahitman (edited 02-26-2008 @ 02:17 AM).]

I'm reposting this after an edit.

[This message has been edited by aznninjahitman (edited 03-17-2008 @ 08:51 PM).]

As you said, probably not my taste, but that certainly does not mean I can't recognize the quality.

Amazing work, really. You've an excellent manner of writing, very modern.

Wow! This was a major change of pace from the prologue, yet one can easily see (in hindsight) how those passages laid the groundwork for this story.

Well done! You do realize that the burden of gaining a reputation as a wonderful and gifted writer is that people will come to expect this of you?

One point, not of substance or grammar but of visual presentation- the starred lines which separate your chapters/sections/passages- is it possible to put extra blank lines above and below them so as to more readily distinguish them for those of use with poor eyes? Just a thought.

Here is we have an example. My passage ends here.

***************************************

My new passage begins here. Bla bla bla bla. Then I come to the end of what I wish to post and make a double starred line so that I may comment under it like so.

****************************************
****************************************

Now it is clear to rheumy eyes that this chapter is at its end and the author's comments will begin. End of criticism.

You are writing one fascinating tale, azn! I am definitely looking forward to seeing how this will play out.

[This message has been edited by Terikel706 (edited 02-27-2008 @ 02:54 AM).]

Thanks, and point taken ^_^ I'll try to remember to do that

This is pretty cool.

Actually, I'm sort of working on the same type of thing (not the same topic, and based in New York, but around the 2080's). Perhaps I'll post it, CoC permitting.

I'm still playing with the next post, and probably will continue to mess with it for the foreseeable future (ie the next week). It's about eleven pages at the moment, in Word (spaced out as if it were a post here). I'm just not sure where I really want to take it in the short run, because I don't want to move too quickly or too slowly, and I intend to do a lot of character development.

I feel ashamed for not knowing the answer to this already, but do you live in China, azn?

Nope. Grew up in IL, go to University of Illinois. ^_^

First language was a dialect of Chinese, though, that's spoken in and around Shantou (a decent-sized port city in Guangdong Province (SE China).

Reposting

[This message has been edited by aznninjahitman (edited 03-17-2008 @ 08:51 PM).]

Well, if we want to talk predictions, I think China is going to have a major blowup in the next decade. Their massive bureaucracy is simply too ill-equip to handle modern capitalism. Not necessarily their authoritarian government, as that really doesn't have much of an effect, but the massive amount of squat pulled down by useless bureaucracy (a problem that has plagued china since the Zhao) will again, I believe, force a change.

Well, they're a bit over-reliant on American markets, so I think that they'll definitely have a crisis unless by some miracle our economy stabilizes. Unless they tie the RMB to the Dollar again, which is pretty possible if they think it'll maintain stability.

Useless bureaucracy is a big problem, but our culture encourages it. Even though Daoism/Confucianism is pretty much a thing of the past.

I'm still writing out scenarios for the future, and figuring out the ripple effects. After all, if the economy slumps, that will result in:
a) attempts to stabilize and restart the economy, and by extension:
1. encouragement of manageable foreign investment
2. creation of jobs
3. unemployment and the necessary adjustments to maintain social order
4. etc.

b) unrest and uncertainty about the future, which cause:
1. decreased birth rate
2. increased suicide rate
3. possible nationalism, if the populace believes or is led to believe that war will help their case
4. poverty, greater acceptance of social services and safety nets
5. etc.

...and you should get the picture. It takes a while and is pretty exhausting

This is coming out just fine, Azn! I haven't read a novel this good in quite a while. Keep it up, please!

A critique or two, though- in Bar Rouge, you say a restauranteur solved the answer by buying the place. Answers do not need solving. He either solved the problem, or provided the answer.

Some of the action leading to the Korean getting knocked down was a bit unclear- you had two girls in the action and the story was referring to her, which made the event a bit hazy in my addled pate. Which her when? I have had this problem myself with two men fighting- he hit him, who hit back. Then he hit the other guy, and he clobbered him. See?

And the fight itself, the beginning was perfect, with the crack of the Korean getting hit and the ka-rump of the impact of his head against the table. Then I got a little lost with his head being smashed repeatedly into the table and cursing in three languages and bludgeoned into submission. That was a really long sentence that carried a lot of action, but not a lot of who was doing what to whom.

The one Sea Wolf was smashing the Korean's head, hard enough to make the sickly cracking sounds and send the slivers of broken martini glass everywhere and likely deeper into the man's wounds as well with every blow. Now, with the Korean hurt that bad, who was doing the cursing? I assumed it was the man doing the smashing, while the Korean moaned and slipped into oblivion, though in your sentence it seemed the man being smashed was being smashed, cursing, then bludgeoned someone else. I think you meant that he was being smashed against the table, cursing all the while, until he was bludgeoned into oblivion.

Apart from those points, it was a great story. Please keep it up!!!!

I'll have to look at that this weekend ^_^ I'm too busy this week, and I don't want to mess with it right now while I'm sleep deprived...

Screw that - I just tweaked it. Hope it's better - it certainly seems better to me.

[This message has been edited by aznninjahitman (edited 03-10-2008 @ 06:59 AM).]

Reposting everything after the prologue. Should be done within a week.

Another 12 pages to go, and I'll be done revising. ^_^